XAUUSD Weekly Analysis 03/01/2025

XAUUSD Weekly Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bullish

• Previous Week’s Performance: Bullish

• Range: 2877 – 2954

• Expectations: Price is expected to push higher towards key liquidity zones before potential reversals.

Trading Plan

For Long Positions

Strategy:

• Look for buying opportunities at major support levels for a potential bullish reversal:

  • 2823 (Weekly FVG - First Major Demand Zone & Fair Value Gap Support)

  • 2802 (Previous Monthly Open - Key Institutional Support Level)

  • 2785 (H4 FVG - Deep Discount Buying Zone & Potential Bounce Area)

Buy Targets:

• 2832 (Extreme Liquidity - First Bullish Target & Potential Reversal Zone)

• 2852 (SR Level - Key Resistance Turned Support Zone)

• 2864 (SR Level - Strong Resistance Area Before Further Upside)

• 2890 (Daily FVG - Retest Zone for Short-Term Bullish Moves)

• 2911 (H4 FVG - Major Resistance Area & Possible Liquidity Grab)

Bearish Bias

Strategy:
Look for shorting opportunities at resistance and liquidity zones:

• Sell Levels:

  • 2890 (Daily FVG - Key Fair Value Gap & Liquidity Zone)

  • 2911 (H4 FVG - Strong Supply Zone & Reversal Area)

  • 2920 (H4 Liquidity - Key Liquidity Zone for Institutional Selling)

  • 2930 (H4 Liquidity - Major Resistance Level & Liquidity Grab Area)

  • 2939 (Previous Weekly Open - Potential Rejection & Supply Zone)

Primary Targets:

• 2832 (Extreme Liquidity - Major Demand Zone & Profit-Taking Area for Shorts)

• 2823 (Weekly FVG - Strong Support & Fair Value Gap Filling Zone)

• 2802 (Previous Monthly Open - Key Level for Buyers to Step In)

• 2785 (H4 FVG - Final Major Support Zone for the Week)

Summary

• Bearish sentiment with short setups at 2890, 2911, 2920, 2930, and 2939, targeting 2832, 2823, 2802, and 2785.

• Long opportunities at 2823, 2802, and 2785, targeting 2832, 2852, and 2864.

• Monitor price action for liquidity grabs and order flow confirmation before executing trades.

Technical analysis

Gold continues its sharp decline, hitting a three-week low below $2,840 as trade tensions between the US and China escalate. The metal has dropped nearly 3% since reaching an all-time high of $2,956 on Monday, pressured by President Trump’s tariff plans, including a 20% rate on Chinese imports starting March 4. China has vowed retaliation, increasing fears of a prolonged trade war. Meanwhile, growing bets on a Fed rate cut in June, with odds now at 71.8%, may provide some future support for gold. However, for now, the risk-off sentiment keeps XAU/USD under pressure.