XAUUSD Weekly Analysis 02/08/2025

Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bullish.

• Previous Week's Performance: Bullish, with the price continuing its climb within a strong uptrend.

• Range: 2772 – 2886

• Expectations: Anticipating a bullish continuation within the range, targeting new highs.

Trading Plan

Bearish Bias

• Strategy:
  Watch for price action rejections at the following resistance zones:

  • 2886 (Extreme Liquidity)

  • 2930 Extension

• Targets:

  • Primary target: 2853 (H4 Liquidity) and 2834 (H4 Liquidity).

  • Secondary target: 2817 (Weekly FVG)

For Long

• Strategy:
  Monitor price action at the following support levels for potential reversals:

  • 2834 (H4 Liquidity)

  • 2830 (Daily FVG)

  • 2817 (Weekly FVG)

  • 2807 (H4 Liquidity)

• Confirmation:
  Look for reversal patterns such as bullish engulfing candles or order block formations before entering long positions.

• Targets:

  • Primary Target: 2886 (Extreme Liquidity).

  • Extended Target: 2930.

Summary

• The bias remains bullish within the 2772 – 2886 range.

• Long entries are favorable around support levels (2834, 2830, 2817,2807) with confirmation.

• Short opportunities may arise near or above 2886/2930 if signs of exhaustion emerge.

• Use your strict money management rules to manage risks effectively.

Technical analysis

Gold prices saw early gains fade as the latest U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report came in below expectations, with 143,000 jobs added versus the forecasted 170,000. Despite the miss, unemployment dropped, keeping some support under gold. The market's initial optimism about a more significant slowdown in job growth quickly reversed, reducing the chances of gold reaching a new all-time high this Friday.

Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical risks, like U.S. President Trump’s tariff threats on the Eurozone and others, are helping to support gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, China's central bank continued to build its gold reserves, buying 0.16 million troy ounces in January for the third consecutive month.

With these factors at play, gold remains well-supported in the face of economic uncertainties. Analysts, including Citigroup, still project a potential rise to $3,000 an ounce within the next three months, driven by geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns.