USDJPY Weekly Analysis 03/01/2025

USDJPY Weekly Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bullish

• Previous Week’s Performance: Bullish

• Range: 148.55 – 150.98

• Expectations: Price is expected to move higher, targeting liquidity zones and fair value gaps (FVGs).

Trading Plan

For Short Positions

Strategy:

• Look for selling opportunities at strong resistance levels for a potential pullback or reversal:

  • 152.30 (H4 Liquidity - Key Resistance & Possible Rejection Zone)

  • 152.69 (Daily FVG - Strong Institutional Sell Area)

  • 153.70 (Monthly FVG - Major Resistance & Possible Long-Term Reversal Zone)

Sell Targets:

• 150.98 (Retest of the Liquidity Before Possible Upside Move)

• 149.88 (H4 FVG - Strong Demand Zone for Possible Re-entry on Longs)

Bullish Bias

Strategy:
Look for long positions at strong liquidity zones and fair value gaps:

• Buy Levels:

  • 149.88 (H4 FVG - Key Demand & Institutional Support Zone)

  • 149.09 (H4 Liquidity - Strong Rejection & Buyer Entry Area)

Primary Targets:

• 151.23 (Daily FVG - First Take-Profit Zone for Longs)

• 152.30 (H4 Liquidity - Major Resistance & Institutional Sell Zone)

• 152.69 (Daily FVG - Extended Target & Liquidity Pool)

• 153.70 (Monthly FVG - Strong Resistance & Long-Term Profit Target)

Summary

• Bullish sentiment with buy setups at 149.88 and 149.09, targeting 151.23, 152.30, 152.69, and 153.70.

• Short opportunities at 152.30, 152.69, and 153.70, targeting 150.98 and 149.88.

• Monitor price action for liquidity grabs, order flow confirmation, and possible retracements before entering positions.

Technical analysis

USD/JPY pushes above the 150.00 mark as the US Dollar remains firm on the back of robust economic data and hawkish Fed expectations. Despite softer Tokyo CPI and weak industrial production data, the Japanese Yen finds some support from expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue its rate-hiking cycle.

Japan’s government has trimmed its FY25/26 budget to ¥115.2 trillion, weighing on JGB yields and limiting JPY strength. Meanwhile, US GDP grew at 2.3% in Q4, with rising inflation concerns prompting Fed officials to maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts. Investors now await the US PCE Price Index for further direction, which could influence USD/JPY’s next move.