USDJPY Weekly Analysis 02/22/2025

Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bearish

• Previous Week’s Performance: Bearish

• Range: 152.30 – 148.92

• Expectations: Price is expected to decline towards liquidity zones before potential reversals.

Trading Plan

For Long Positions

Strategy:
Look for buy opportunities at strong demand and liquidity levels:

• Buy Levels:

  • 148.63 (Daily Liquidity - Strong Support & Institutional Buy Zone)

  • 147.21 (Monthly FVG - Long-Term Reversal Area & Potential Bounce Zone)

Buy Targets:

• 148.92 (First Upside Target & Reaction Zone)

• 150.18 (H4 FVG - Potential Sell Zone & Resistance Area)

• 151.23 (Daily FVG - Major Rejection Zone)

• 151.38 (H4 FVG - Strong Resistance Level)

Bearish Bias

Strategy:
Look for sell opportunities from key resistance and supply zones:

• 151.23 (Daily FVG - Key Resistance & Supply Zone)

• 151.38 (H4 FVG - Institutional Sell Area & Liquidity Grab Zone)

• 150.18 (H4 FVG - Key Rejection Area & Supply Zone)

Primary Targets:

• 148.92 (Extreme Liquidity - Major Support & Liquidity Pool)

• 148.63 (Daily Liquidity - Key Demand Zone & Reversal Area)

• 147.21 (Monthly FVG - Long-Term Institutional Demand Zone)

Summary

• Bearish bias remains valid below 151.23, targeting 148.92, 148.63, and 147.21.

• A clean break below 148.92 (Extreme Liquidity) may accelerate selling pressure.

• Long setups become valid near 148.63 and 147.21 for potential rebounds.

• Monitor price action at FVGs and liquidity zones for confirmation.

Technical analysis

USD/JPY Holds Firm Amid Fed Caution and Japan CPI Focus

USD/JPY remains elevated as risk sentiment stays cautious following Trump’s tariff threats. The FOMC minutes reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance, keeping rate cut expectations in check. Meanwhile, investors shift focus to Japan’s upcoming CPI data—if inflation accelerates beyond 3.1%, speculation of a Bank of Japan rate hike could limit further upside in USD/JPY.