USDJPY Weekly Analysis 02/15/2025

Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Previous Week’s Performance: Inside Bar (Indecision)

• Current Bias: Bearish

• Range: 150.92 – 154.79

• Expectations: Price is expected to move lower, targeting key liquidity levels.

Trading Plan

For Long Positions

Strategy:

If price reaches major liquidity levels and forms reversal patterns, consider buy setups:

• 150.92 (Extreme Liquidity)

• 150.69 (Daily FVG)

Buy Targets:

• 153.41 (H4 FVG)

• 153.89 (H4 FVG)

• 154.34 (H4 OB)

Bearish Bias

Strategy:

Look for shorting opportunities below key resistance zones:

• 153.41 (H4 FVG)

• 153.89 (H4 FVG)

• 154.34 (H4 OB)

Primary Targets:

• 152.02 (H4 Liquidity)

• 151.64 (H4 Liquidity)

• 150.92 (Extreme Liquidity)

• 150.69 (Daily FVG)

Summary

• Bearish bias remains valid below 154.34, with primary targets at 152.02 – 150.69.

• Inside bar setup suggests a breakout is likely, so confirmation of direction is key.

• Potential buy opportunities exist at major liquidity zones, but only if price shows clear signs of reversal.

• A clean break above 154.79 would invalidate the bearish bias and shift focus to longs.

• Risk management is crucial—watch for liquidity sweeps and reversal structures.

Technical analysis

USD/JPY Holds Steady as Market Awaits Clear Trade Policy Signals

USD/JPY remains stable as risk appetite improves after US President Donald Trump delayed announcing a detailed reciprocal tariff plan. This eased immediate fears of a global trade war, weakening the US Dollar (DXY) to a nearly four-week low around 106.80.

However, the Fed’s hawkish stance supports the USD, with Chair Jerome Powell signaling that rates may stay elevated if inflation remains above 2%. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen struggles despite growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy further amid persistent inflation and rising wages.