USDJPY Weekly Analysis 02/02/2025
Satheesh V
Fundamental analysis
1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure
Current Momentum: Bearish.
Previous Week's Performance: Bearish.
Range: 156.24 – 153.70
Expectations: Anticipating a bearish move within the range, targeting lower liquidity levels.
Trading Plan
Bearish Bias
Strategy:
Watch for price rejections at the following resistance zones:
155.67 (Weekly Open)
155.78 (H4 Liquidity)
Targets:
Primary targets: 153.70 (H4 Liquidity) and 153.15 (H4 Liquidity).
Secondary targets: 152.77 (Daily FVG) and 151.23 (Weekly FVG).
For Long
Strategy:
Monitor price action at the following support levels for potential reversals:
153.70 (H4 Liquidity)
153.15 (H4 Liquidity)
152.77 (Daily FVG)
151.23 (Weekly FVG)
Confirmation:
Look for reversal patterns such as bullish engulfing candles or order block formations before entering long positions.
Targets:
Primary Targets: 155.67 (Weekly Open) and 155.78 (H4 Liquidity).
Extended Target: 156.24 (Range High).
Summary
The bias remains bearish within the 156.24 – 153.70 range.
Short entries are favorable around resistance levels with confirmation.
Long opportunities may arise near or below 152.77 if signs of exhaustion emerge.
Use your strict money management rules to manage risks effectively.
Technical analysis
USD/JPY rebounds as the Japanese Yen weakens following BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks that inflation remains below 2%, signaling continued accommodative policy. Despite stronger Tokyo CPI data, BoJ rate hike bets remain uncertain, limiting JPY gains.
Meanwhile, US Dollar strength is supported by rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns stemming from Trump’s tariff threats. However, uncertainty over US policy and the upcoming PCE inflation data may cap USD/JPY upside.
Near-term outlook remains mixed, with BoJ policy expectations and US inflation data key to determining the next move.
