USDCHF Weekly Analysis 02/15/2025

Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bearish.

• Previous Week's Performance: Bearish.

• Range: 0.9154 – 0.8971

• Expectations: Price is expected to decline, targeting liquidity zones and fair value gaps (FVGs).

Trading Plan

For Long Positions

Strategy:

If price reaches key liquidity zones and forms a reversal pattern, consider buy setups:

• 0.8888 (Weekly FVG)

• 0.8853 (Daily FVG)

Buy Targets:

• 0.8971 (Extreme Liquidity)

• 0.9048 (H4 Liquidity)

• 0.9088 (Weekly OB)

Bearish Bias

Strategy:

Look for shorting opportunities below resistance levels:

• 0.9048 (H4 Liquidity)

• 0.9088 (Weekly OB)

• 0.9101 (Daily FVG)

Primary Targets:

• 0.8971 (Extreme Liquidity)

• 0.8888 (Weekly FVG)

• 0.8853 (Daily FVG)

Summary

• Bearish bias remains valid below 0.9154, with primary targets at 0.8971 – 0.8853.

• Potential buy opportunities exist at deeper liquidity zones, but confirmation is needed.

• A clean break above 0.9154 would invalidate the bearish bias and shift focus to longs.

• Risk management is essential—watch for liquidity sweeps and reversal structures.

Technical analysis

USD/CHF Extends Losses as Dollar Weakness Persists

USD/CHF continued its downward trend on Friday, declining below 0.9000. Despite stronger-than-expected US inflation reinforcing expectations of prolonged Federal Reserve (Fed) rate stability, the Greenback failed to gain momentum.

Meanwhile, Switzerland's CPI inflation dropped to 0.4% YoY in January, marking its lowest level since April 2021. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also supported the Swiss Franc (CHF), given its safe-haven appeal. Traders now turn their attention to upcoming US PPI data for further market direction.