USDCAD Weekly Analysis 02/15/2025

Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Bias: Bearish

• Previous Week's Performance: Bearish.

• Range: 1.4377 – 1.4150

• Expectations: Price is expected to move lower, targeting key liquidity levels.

Trading Plan

For Long Positions

Strategy:

If price reaches major liquidity levels and forms reversal patterns, consider buy setups:

• 1.4078 (Daily FVG)

• 1.3998 (Weekly OB)

• 1.3944 (Monthly FVG)

Buy Targets:

• 1.4150 (Extreme Liquidity)

• 1.4339 (H4 Liquidity)

Bearish Bias

Strategy:

Look for shorting opportunities below key resistance zones:

• 1.4269 (Weekly FVG)

• 1.4302 (H4 Liquidity)

• 1.4339 (H4 Liquidity)

Primary Targets:

• 1.4150 (Extreme Liquidity)

• 1.4078 (Daily FVG)

• 1.3998 (Weekly OB)

Summary

• Bearish bias remains valid below 1.4377, with primary targets at 1.4150 – 1.3998.

• Potential buy opportunities exist at key liquidity and FVG zones, but confirmation is needed.

• A clean break above 1.4377 would invalidate the bearish bias and shift focus to longs.

• Risk management is crucial—watch for liquidity sweeps and reversal structures.

Technical analysis

USD/CAD Declines as Weak US Retail Sales Support the Loonie

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continued its advance against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, gaining 0.15% as cooling Greenback demand fueled risk appetite. US Retail Sales contracted by 0.9% in January—far worse than the expected 0.1% decline—putting pressure on USD bulls.

Despite weaker US data, upward revisions in previous figures softened the blow, limiting major downside for the Greenback. Looking ahead, Canadian CPI inflation data next week could set the tone for further CAD momentum if inflation remains persistent.