USDCAD Weekly Analysis 02/08/2025
Satheesh Gobi
2/8/2025
Fundamental analysis
1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure
Current Momentum: Bearish.
Previous Week's Performance: Bearish.
Range: 1.4792 – 1.4269
Expectations: Anticipating a bearish continuation within the range, targeting new lows.
Trading Plan
Bearish Bias
Strategy:
Watch for price action rejections at the following resistance zones:1.4502(H4 Liquidity)
1.4517 (H4 FVG)
1.4593 (SR level)
1.4724 (H4 FVG)
Targets:
Primary target: 1.4260 (Daily Liquidity) and 1.4244 (Weekly FVG).
Secondary target: 1.4177 (Monthly FVG) and 1.4069 (Extension)
For Long
Strategy:
Monitor price action at the following support levels for potential reversals:1.4260 (Daily Liquidity)
1.4244 (Weekly FVG)
1.4177 (Monthly FVG)
Confirmation:
Look for reversal patterns such as bullish engulfing candles or order block formations before entering long positions.Targets:
Primary Target: 1.4366 (Internal Liquidity) and 1.447 (H4 FVG).
Extended Target: 1.4501 and 1.4593 (SR level).
Summary
The bias remains bearish within the 1.4792 – 1.4269 range.
Short entries are favorable around resistance levels (1.4502, 1.4517, 1.4593) with confirmation.
Long opportunities may arise near or below 1.4260, 1.4244, 1.4177 if signs of exhaustion emerge.
Use your strict money management rules to manage risks effectively.
Technical analysis
USD/CAD slides to 1.4300 after stronger-than-expected Canadian employment data and weaker US job numbers. Canada added 76K jobs in January, far exceeding the 25K forecast, while unemployment dipped to 6.6%. This signals resilience in the Canadian economy despite BoC rate cuts.
Meanwhile, US NFP data disappointed, adding just 143K jobs versus 170K expected. However, wage growth accelerated to 4.1% YoY, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may maintain higher interest rates for longer.
With diverging labor market trends, USD/CAD traders now await fresh catalysts to determine the next move.