NZDUSD Weekly Analysis 03/01/2025

NZDUSD Weekly Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bearish

• Previous Week’s Performance: Bearish

• Range: 0.5771 – 0.5593

• Expectations: Price is expected to decline, targeting liquidity zones and fair value gaps (FVGs).

Trading Plan

For Long Positions

Strategy:

• Look for buying opportunities at strong demand zones for a possible retracement:

  • 0.5546 (H4 FVG - Key Demand & Institutional Buy Zone)

  • 0.5515 (Daily Liquidity - Strong Support Level for a Bounce)

Buy Targets:

• 0.5593 (Liquidity Pool - Short-Term Bounce Zone)

• 0.5687 (Daily FVG - Possible Retest Zone Before Further Decline)

• 0.5705 (Daily FVG - Extended Target for a Short-Term Retracement)

Bearish Bias

Strategy:
Look for short positions at strong resistance and liquidity levels:

• Sell Levels:

  • 0.5687 (Daily FVG - Institutional Resistance & Potential Short Entry Zone)

  • 0.5705 (Daily FVG - Fair Value Gap for Bearish Continuation)

  • 0.5718 (Weekly OB - Key Order Block & Supply Zone)

  • 0.5731 (H4 Liquidity - Possible Liquidity Grab & Reversal Area)

Primary Targets:

• 0.5580 (H4 Liquidity - Key Demand Zone & First Bearish Target)

• 0.5546 (H4 FVG - Institutional Buy Zone & Potential Support)

• 0.5515 (Daily Liquidity - Major Liquidity Pool & Reversal Area)

Summary

• Bearish sentiment with short setups at 0.5687, 0.5705, 0.5718, and 0.5731, targeting 0.5580, 0.5546, and 0.5515.

• Long opportunities at 0.5546 and 0.5515, targeting 0.5593, 0.5687, and 0.5705.

• Monitor liquidity grabs, fair value gap reactions, and order block confirmations before entering trades.

Technical analysis

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains under pressure, extending its losing streak near 0.5600 as global trade tensions and domestic economic concerns mount. Despite a slight uptick in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index to 96.6, broader economic sentiment remains fragile, with 12-month outlook expectations declining to -16%.

US President Donald Trump’s confirmation of a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods, alongside an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports, has fueled risk aversion, weighing on the China-linked Kiwi. The latest trade restrictions add to previous tariff hikes, intensifying fears of a global economic slowdown.

With rising trade risks and a cautious economic outlook, NZD/USD remains vulnerable to further downside.