NZDUSD Weekly Analysis 02/15/2025

Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bullish.

• Previous Week's Performance: Bullish, with the price continuing its climb within a strong uptrend.

• Range: 0.5599 – 0.5737

• Expectations: Price is expected to move higher, targeting key liquidity zones and fair value gaps (FVGs).

Trading Plan

For Short Positions

Strategy:

If price reaches key resistance areas and forms a reversal, consider sell setups:

• 0.5792 (Daily Liquidity)

• 0.5820 (Weekly FVG)

Sell Targets:

• 0.5737 (Extreme Liquidity)

• 0.5678 (Daily FVG)

Bullish Bias

Strategy:

Look for long opportunities from liquidity levels and fair value gaps:

• 0.5693 (H4 FVG)

• 0.5678 (Daily FVG)

• 0.5657 (H4 FVG)

• 0.5621 (H4 Liquidity)

Primary Targets:

• 0.5737 (Extreme Liquidity)

• 0.5749 (Daily FVG)

• 0.5792 (Daily Liquidity)

• 0.5820 (Weekly FVG)

Summary

• Bullish bias remains valid above 0.5599, with targets at 0.5737 – 0.5820.

• Potential sell opportunities exist at 0.5792 (Daily Liquidity) and 0.5820 (Weekly FVG), but confirmation is needed.

• A clean break below 0.5599 would invalidate the bullish bias and shift focus to shorts.

• Monitor price action closely for high-probability setups around liquidity levels.

Technical analysis

NZD/USD Surges as US Dollar Weakens, Eyes 100-Day SMA

NZD/USD soared over 1% on Friday, reaching its highest level since late January as the US Dollar extended its decline. The pair broke above 0.5730, with bullish momentum targeting the 100-day SMA at 0.5825.

Improved risk sentiment and fading expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts have supported the Kiwi’s rally. Traders now await New Zealand’s upcoming inflation expectations data for further direction, while global trade uncertainties and US economic indicators remain key drivers for NZD/USD’s next move.