NZDUSD Weekly Analysis 02/09/2025

Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bullish.

• Previous Week's Performance: Bullish.

• Range: 0.5515 – 0.5701

• Expectations: Anticipating a bullish continuation within the range, targeting new highs.

Trading Plan

Bearish Bias

• Strategy:
  Watch for price action rejections at the following resistance levels:

  • 0.5722 (Daily Liquidity)

  • 0.5772 (Extension)

  • 0.5816(Weekly FVG).

• Targets:

  • Primary target: 0.5610 (H4 FVG) and 0.5580 (H4 Liquidity).

  • Secondary target: 0.5546 (H4 FVG) and 0.5515 (Extreme Liquidity)

For Long

• Strategy:
  Monitor price action at the following support levels for potential reversals:

  • 0.5610 (H4 FVG)

  • 0.5580 (H4 Liquidity)

  • 0.5546 (H4 FVG)

• Confirmation:
  Look for reversal patterns such as bullish engulfing candles or order block formations before entering long positions.

• Targets:

  • Primary Target: 5701 (Extreme Liquidity) and 0.5722 (Daily Liquidity).

  • Extended Target: 0.5772 (Extension) and 0.5816(Weekly FVG).

Summary

• The bias remains bullish within the 0.5515 – 0.5701 range.

• Long entries are favorable around support levels (0.5610, 0.5580,0.5546) with confirmation.

• Short opportunities may arise near or above 0.5722, 0.5772, 0.5816 if signs of exhaustion emerge.

• Use your strict money management rules to manage risks effectively.

Technical analysis

NZD/USD climbs near 0.5700 as weaker US employment data fuels dovish Fed bets. The US economy added only 143K jobs in January, below the 170K forecast, while wage growth unexpectedly accelerated to 4.1%. This mix raises uncertainty about the Fed’s rate path, pressuring the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, optimism around a potential US-China trade deal supports the Kiwi, as New Zealand’s economy remains closely tied to Chinese demand. Traders now await US inflation data for further direction on NZD/USD.