NZDUSD Weekly Analysis 02/02/2025
Satheesh V
Fundamental analysis
1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure
Current Momentum: Bearish.
Previous Week's Performance: Bearish.
Range: 0.5722 – 0.5622
Expectations: Anticipating a bearish move within the range, targeting lower liquidity levels.
Trading Plan
Bearish Bias
Strategy:
Watch for price rejections at the following resistance zones:
0.5683 (H4 Liquidity)
0.5704 (H4 Liquidity)
Targets:
Primary targets: 0.5622 (Range Low) and 0.5616 (H4 Liquidity).
Secondary targets: 0.5593 (Monthly Open) and 0.5575 (Weekly Open).
Extended target: 0.5562 (H4 Liquidity).
For Long
Strategy:
Monitor price action at the following support levels for potential reversals:
0.5616 (H4 Liquidity)
0.5593 (Monthly Open)
0.5575 (Weekly Open)
0.5562 (H4 Liquidity)
Confirmation:
Look for reversal patterns such as bullish engulfing candles or order block formations before entering long positions.
Targets:
Primary Targets: 0.5683 (H4 Liquidity) and 0.5704 (H4 Liquidity).
Extended Target: 0.5722 (Range High).
Summary
The bias remains bearish within the 0.5722 – 0.5622 range.
Short entries are favorable around resistance levels with confirmation.
Long opportunities may arise near or below 0.5575 if signs of exhaustion emerge.
Use your strict money management rules to manage risks effectively.
Technical analysis
NZD/USD recovers slightly from a one-week low near 0.5620, supported by risk-on sentiment and subdued USD demand. However, the Fed’s hawkish stance contrasts with RBNZ rate cut expectations, keeping upside limited.
Trade war fears and rising US bond yields bolster the Greenback, while investors await the US PCE inflation data for further direction. The Kiwi remains vulnerable to renewed USD strength and risk aversion.
