GBPUSD Weekly Analysis 03/02/2025

GBPUSD Weekly Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bearish

• Previous Week’s Performance: Bearish

• Range: 1.2715 – 1.2558

• Expectations: Price is expected to move downward, targeting liquidity zones and fair value gaps (FVGs).

Trading Plan

For Long Positions

Strategy:

• Look for buying opportunities at strong support levels for a potential bullish reversal:

  • 1.2483 (Daily FVG - Strong Demand & Potential Reversal Zone)

  • 1.2378 (H4 Liquidity - Key Buy Zone for Institutional Traders)

  • 1.2332 (Daily Liquidity - Major Support for a Possible Pullback)

  • 1.2285 (Previous Monthly Open - Historical Support Level & Long Entry Zone)

Buy Targets:

• 1.2558 (Retest Before Possible Continuation Downward)

• 1.2621 (H4 Liquidity - Retest Zone for Potential Short Entries)

• 1.2652 (H4 FVG - Possible Resistance & Shorting Opportunity)

• 1.2673 (H4 OB - Key Rejection Zone for Further Downside Moves)

Bearish Bias

Strategy:
Look for shorting opportunities at resistance and liquidity zones:

• Sell Levels:

  • 1.2621 (H4 Liquidity - Key Rejection Zone Before a Drop)

  • 1.2652 (H4 FVG - Strong Supply Zone & Reversal Area)

  • 1.2673 (H4 OB - Institutional Order Block & Resistance Zone)

  • 1.2688 (H4 Liquidity - Major Resistance & Institutional Selling Area)

Primary Targets:

• 1.2549 (Weekly FVG - First Major Take-Profit Zone for Shorts)

• 1.2483 (Daily FVG - Strong Demand Zone & Key Reversal Area)

• 1.2378 (H4 Liquidity - Major Support Zone Before Further Downside Movement)

• 1.2332 (Daily Liquidity - Final Bearish Target for the Week)

Summary

• Bearish sentiment with short setups at 1.2621, 1.2652, 1.2673, and 1.2688, targeting 1.2549, 1.2483, 1.2378, and 1.2332.

• Long opportunities at 1.2483, 1.2378, 1.2332, and 1.2285, targeting 1.2558, 1.2621, and 1.2652.

• Monitor price action for liquidity grabs and order flow confirmation before executing trades.

Technical analysis

GBP/USD remains under pressure as the US dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand following renewed trade war concerns. President Trump confirmed tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports will take effect on March 4, while leaving the door open for a potential trade deal. Meanwhile, BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden’s cautious stance on rate cuts offered limited support to the Pound. With US Core PCE data aligning with forecasts at 0.3%, Fed rate expectations remain unchanged, keeping the USD in a strong position. Month-end flows may add volatility, making a sustained GBP/USD recovery challenging.