EURUSD Weekly Analysis 03/01/2025

EURUSD Weekly Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bearish

• Previous Week’s Performance: Bearish

• Range: 1.0528 – 1.0358

• Expectations: Price is expected to decline, targeting key liquidity zones and fair value gaps (FVGs).

Trading Plan

For Long Positions

Strategy:

• Look for buying opportunities at major support levels for a potential bullish reversal:

  • 1.0316 (H4 Liquidity - Strong Buy Zone for a Short-Term Reversal)

  • 1.0306 (H4 OB - Key Institutional Demand Zone & Reversal Point)

  • 1.0282 (Daily Liquidity - Strong Support & Bounce Area)

Buy Targets:

• 1.0358 (Retest Before Possible Continuation Downward)

• 1.0419 (H4 Liquidity - Retest Zone for Potential Short Entries)

• 1.0463 (H4 FVG - Possible Resistance & Shorting Opportunity)

• 1.0489 (H4 Liquidity - Key Rejection Zone for Further Downside Moves)

Bearish Bias

Strategy:
Look for shorting opportunities at resistance and liquidity zones:

• Sell Levels:

  • 1.0419 (H4 Liquidity - Key Liquidity Grab Zone Before Rejection)

  • 1.0463 (H4 FVG - Strong Supply Zone & Reversal Area)

  • 1.0489 (H4 Liquidity - Major Resistance & Institutional Selling Zone)

Primary Targets:

• 1.0316 (H4 Liquidity - Major Support & First Take-Profit Zone for Shorts)

• 1.0282 (Daily Liquidity - Strong Demand Zone & Key Reversal Area)

• 1.0232 (Previous Monthly Open - Final Support Zone for the Week)

Summary

• Bearish sentiment with short setups at 1.0419, 1.0463, and 1.0489, targeting 1.0316, 1.0282, and 1.0232.

• Long opportunities at 1.0316, 1.0306, and 1.0282, targeting 1.0358, 1.0419, and 1.0463.

• Monitor price action for liquidity grabs and order flow confirmation before executing trades..

Technical analysis

EUR/USD remains under pressure as the US dollar gains strength amid escalating trade tensions. President Trump confirmed that the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, along with a 10% tariff on China, will take effect on March 4, triggering a sharp decline in equities and boosting safe-haven demand for the USD.Germany’s CPI came in at 0.4% MoM, in line with expectations, providing no fresh bullish catalyst for the Euro. Similarly, the US Core PCE Price Index met forecasts at 0.3% MoM, keeping Fed rate expectations steady. With risk sentiment still dampened by trade war fears and no surprises from inflation data, EUR/USD struggles for upside momentum, staying pressured below key resistance levels.