EURUSD Weekly Analysis 02/22/2025

Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Previous Week’s Candle: Inside Bar (Potential Breakout Setup)

• Current Bias: Bearish

• Range: 1.0513 – 1.0400

• Expectations: Price is expected to decline towards liquidity zones before potential reversals.

Trading Plan

For Long Positions

Strategy:
Look for buy opportunities at strong demand levels:

• Buy Levels:

  • 1.0372 (H4 Liquidity - Key Demand & Institutional Support Zone)

  • 1.0316 (H4 Liquidity - Deep Liquidity Pool & High-Probability Reversal Area)

  • 1.0306 (Daily OB - Institutional Order Block & Long-Term Demand Zone)

Buy Targets:

• 1.0400 (First Upside Target & Potential Reaction Zone)

• 1.0492 (H4 Liquidity - Major Resistance & Supply Area)

• 1.0505 (H4 Liquidity - Key Distribution Zone & Sell Opportunity)

• 1.0513 (Extreme Liquidity - Major Rejection Zone & High-Probability Sell Level)

Bearish Bias

Strategy:
Look for sell opportunities from key resistance and liquidity zones:

• 1.0492 (H4 Liquidity - Potential Supply & Resistance Zone)

• 1.0505 (H4 Liquidity - Key Resistance & Distribution Zone)

Primary Targets:

• 1.0400 (Extreme Liquidity - Major Downside Target & Institutional Demand Zone)

• 1.0372 (H4 Liquidity - Strong Demand & Potential Reversal Area)

• 1.0316 (H4 Liquidity - Deep Liquidity Pool & Institutional Buy Zone)

Summary

• Bearish bias remains valid below 1.0505, targeting 1.0400, 1.0372, and 1.0316.

• A clean break below 1.0400 (Extreme Liquidity) may accelerate selling pressure.

• Long setups become valid near 1.0372, 1.0316, and 1.0306 for potential reversals.

• Monitor price action at liquidity zones and order blocks for trade confirmations.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD Holds Near 1.0500 Amid Mixed US Data and German Election Uncertainty

EUR/USD rebounds toward 1.0500 on Friday as weaker-than-expected US business activity data puts pressure on the US Dollar. The USD Index (DXY) dropped sharply after jobless claims rose to 219,000 and US Treasury yields dipped below 4.5%, further weighing on the greenback.

Meanwhile, Eurozone and German PMI data are expected to remain in expansion territory, but any downside surprise could limit Euro gains. Investors are also eyeing Germany’s upcoming general election, which could trigger volatility in the pair as markets reassess the political outlook. In the short term, EUR/USD remains range-bound, with a break above 1.0500 needed for further upside momentum.