EURUSD Weekly Analysis 01/02/2025
Satheesh V
Fundamental analysis
1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure
Current Momentum: Bearish.
Previous Week's Performance: Bearish.
Range: 1.0533 – 1.0349
Expectations: Anticipating a bearish continuation within the range, targeting lower liquidity levels.
Trading Plan
Bearish Bias
Strategy:
Watch for price rejections at the following resistance zones:1.0433 (H4 Liquidity)
1.0467 (H4 Liquidity)
1.0474 (Weekly open)
Targets:
Primary targets: 1.0341 (H4 Liquidity) and 1.0330 (Daily FVG).
Secondary targets: 1.0267 (Weekly OB) and 1.0250 (Daily FVG).
For Long
Strategy:
Monitor price action at the following support levels for potential reversals:1.0341 (H4 Liquidity)
1.0330 (Daily FVG)
1.0267 (Weekly OB)
1.0250 (Daily FVG)
Confirmation:
Look for reversal patterns such as bullish engulfing candles or order block formations before entering long positions.Targets:
Primary Targets: 1.0433 (H4 Liquidity) and 1.0467 (H4 Liquidity).
Extended Target: 1.0533 (Extreme Liquidity).
Summary
The bias remains bearish within the 1.0533 – 1.0349 range.
short entries are favorable around resistance levels with confirmation.
Long opportunities may arise near or below 1.0267 if signs of exhaustion emerge.
Use your strict money management rules to manage risks effectively.
Technical analysis
EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.0370 as weaker-than-expected German CPI data strengthens expectations of European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts. ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled potential easing, further weighing on the Euro.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar gains momentum amid strong safe-haven demand, bolstered by Donald Trump’s tariff threats on BRICS, Mexico, and Canada. With the Federal Reserve maintaining its hawkish stance and inflation risks persisting, the USD remains resilient.
Near-term outlook favors further downside in EUR/USD, with upcoming Eurozone inflation data and Fed policy expectations playing a crucial role in determining the next move.