BTCUSD Weekly Analysis 02/17/2025

Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bullish.

• Previous Week: Inside Bar

• Range: 94,091 – 98,871

• Expectations: Price is expected to break higher, targeting key liquidity zones and fair value gaps (FVGs).

Trading Plan

For Short Positions

Strategy:

If price reaches key resistance areas and forms a reversal, consider sell setups:

• 104,119 (H4 FVG)

• 106,447 (Daily Liquidity)

• 109,356 (ATH - All-Time High)

Sell Targets:

• 98,871 (Range High)

• 96,300 (H4 Liquidity)

• 95,249 (H4 Liquidity)

• 94,091 (Extreme Liquidity - Range Low)

Bullish Bias

Strategy:

Look for long opportunities from liquidity levels and FVGs:

• 96,300 (H4 Liquidity)

• 95,249 (H4 Liquidity)

Primary Targets:

• 100,185 (H4 Liquidity)

• 102,569 (Daily Liquidity)

• 104,119 (H4 FVG)

• 106,447 (Daily Liquidity)

Summary

• Bullish bias remains valid above 94,091, with targets at 100,185 – 106,447.

• Potential sell opportunities exist at 104,119 (H4 FVG) and 106,447 (Daily Liquidity), but confirmation is needed.

• A clean break below 94,091 would invalidate the bullish bias and shift focus to shorts.

• Monitor price action closely for high-probability setups around liquidity levels.

Technical analysis

Bitcoin Consolidates Below $100K Amid Weak Institutional Demand

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade between $94,000 and $100,000, struggling to break higher despite a recent rebound. US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $650.80 million, signaling waning institutional demand.

Macroeconomic uncertainty and Trump's push for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal have added volatility, with BTC reacting more like a risk-on asset than a safe haven. As central banks expand money supply and inflation risks grow, Bitcoin's fixed-supply narrative could attract renewed interest, but for now, traders remain cautious.