AUDUSD Weekly Analysis 02/22/2025

Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bullish

• Previous Week’s Performance: Bullish

• Range: 0.6327 – 0.6408

• Expectations: Price is expected to rise towards key liquidity zones before potential reversals.

Trading Plan

For Short Positions

Strategy:
Look for sell opportunities at strong resistance levels:

• Sell Levels:

  • 0.6408 (Extreme Liquidity - Strong Resistance & Profit-Taking Zone)

  • 0.6433 (Monthly FVG - Long-Term Supply Zone & Institutional Sell Area)

  • 0.6458 (Extension - Overbought Territory & Rejection Zone)

Sell Targets:

• 0.6351 (First Downside Target & Liquidity Pool)

• 0.6343 (H4 OB - Institutional Demand & Key Reversal Area)

• 0.6327 (Major Support & Low of the Range)

Bullish Bias

Strategy:
Look for buy opportunities from key demand and liquidity zones:

• 0.6351 (Liquidity - Key Reversal & Buy Zone)

• 0.6343 (H4 OB - Institutional Demand & Support Zone)

Primary Targets:

• 0.6408 (Extreme Liquidity - Major Resistance & Liquidity Pool)

• 0.6433 (Monthly FVG - Strong Supply Zone & Rejection Area)

• 0.6458 (Extension - Potential Price Exhaustion Zone)

Summary

• Bullish bias remains valid above 0.6343, targeting 0.6408, 0.6433, and 0.6458.

• A clean break above 0.6408 (Extreme Liquidity) may accelerate bullish momentum.

• Short setups become valid near 0.6408, 0.6433, and 0.6458 for potential reversals.

• Monitor price action at OBs and liquidity zones for confirmation.

Technical analysis

AUD/USD Struggles Near 0.6400 as Risk Sentiment Fades

AUD/USD stalls below 0.6400 as risk appetite weakens following disappointing US Services PMI data. While Trump’s tariff plans appear less severe than feared, lingering uncertainty keeps markets cautious. Meanwhile, the RBA’s measured approach to rate cuts limits downside pressure on the Aussie, with traders now pricing in only one more cut in 2025 unless inflation trends shift significantly.