AUDUSD Weekly Analysis 02/15/2025

Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bullish.

• Previous Week's Performance: Bullish, with the price continuing its climb within a strong uptrend.

• Range: 0.6232 – 0.6367

• Expectations: Price is expected to move higher towards liquidity zones and fair value gaps (FVGs).

Trading Plan

For Short Positions

Strategy:

If price reaches significant resistance levels and forms a reversal, consider sell setups:

• 0.6433 (Monthly FVG)

Sell Targets:

• 0.6367 (Extreme Liquidity)

• 0.6302 (H4 FVG)

Bullish Bias

Strategy:

Look for long opportunities from key liquidity zones and order blocks:

• 0.6302 (H4 FVG)

• 0.6293 (Daily OB)

• 0.6254 (H4 Liquidity)

Primary Targets:

• 0.6367 (Extreme Liquidity)

• 0.6433 (Monthly FVG)

Summary

• Bullish bias remains valid above 0.6232, with targets at 0.6367 – 0.6433.

• Potential sell opportunities exist at the monthly FVG (0.6433), but confirmation is required.

• A clean break below 0.6232 would invalidate the bullish bias and shift focus to shorts.

• Monitor price action closely around liquidity levels for entries and exits.

Technical analysis

AUD/USD Rises as US Dollar Weakens, RBA Rate Decision in Focus

AUD/USD climbed towards the 0.6400 level on Friday, capitalizing on broad US Dollar weakness despite firm US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Market sentiment fluctuated amid ongoing trade uncertainties, with Australia’s close ties to China keeping the Aussie sensitive to tariff developments.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut rates next week, with markets pricing in a 90% probability of a 25 bps reduction. However, expectations for deeper cuts remain limited. Traders now await Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations data for further clues ahead of the RBA’s key policy decision.