AUDUSD Weekly Analysis 02/08/2025

Fundamental analysis

1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure

• Current Momentum: Bullish.

• Previous Week's Performance: Bullish.

• Range: 0.6087 – 0.6301

• Expectations: Anticipating a bullish continuation within the range, targeting new highs.

Trading Plan

Bearish Bias

• Strategy:
  Watch for price action rejections at the following resistance zones:

  • 0.6301 (Extreme Liquidity)

  • 0.6330 (Daily Liquidity)

  • 0.6382 Extension

• Targets:

  • Primary target: 0.6211 (H4 FVG) and 0.6170 (H4 Liquidity).

  • Secondary target: 0.6126 (H4 FVG) and 0.6087 (Extreme Liquidity)

For Long

• Strategy:
  Monitor price action at the following support levels for potential reversals:

  • 0.6211 (H4 FVG)

  • 0.6170 (H4 Liquidity)

  • 0.6126 (H4 FVG)

• Confirmation:
  Look for reversal patterns such as bullish engulfing candles or order block formations before entering long positions.

• Targets:

  • Primary Target: 0.6301 (Extreme Liquidity) and 0.6330 (Daily liquidiy).

  • Extended Target: 0.6382 and 0.6433 (Extensions).

Summary

• The bias remains bullish within the 0.6087 – 0.6301 range.

• Long entries are favorable around support levels (0.6211, 0.6170, 0.6126) with confirmation.

• Short opportunities may arise near or above 0.6330/0.6382 if signs of exhaustion emerge.

• Use your strict money management rules to manage risks effectively.

Technical analysis

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains firm as markets anticipate a potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping to ease trade tensions. China’s recent tariffs on US coal, LNG, and crude oil highlight ongoing trade risks, but any progress in negotiations could support the Aussie, given Australia’s strong trade ties with China.

On the domestic front, traders have fully priced in a 25-bps rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on February 18, which may limit AUD gains. Markets now await fresh economic signals for the next move.