AUDUSD Weekly Analysis 02/02/2025
Satheesh V
Fundamental analysis
1. Overview of Momentum and Market Structure
Current Momentum: Bearish.
Previous Week's Performance: Bearish.
Range: 0.6330 – 0.6198
Expectations: Anticipating a bearish move within the range, targeting lower liquidity levels.
Trading Plan
Bearish Bias
Strategy:
Watch for price rejections at the following resistance zones:
0.6262 (H4 Liquidity)
0.6274 (H4 FVG)
0.6307 (H4 Liquidity)
Targets:
Primary targets: 0.6198 (H4 Liquidity) and 0.6189 (Monthly Open).
Secondary targets: 0.6164 (Daily Liquidity).
For Long
Strategy:
Monitor price action at the following support levels for potential reversals:
0.6198 (H4 Liquidity)
0.6189 (Monthly Open)
0.6164 (Daily Liquidity)
Confirmation:
Look for reversal patterns such as bullish engulfing candles or order block formations before entering long positions.
Targets:
Primary Targets: 0.6262 (H4 Liquidity) and 0.6274 (H4 FVG).
Extended Target: 0.6307 (H4 Liquidity).
Summary
The bias remains bearish within the 0.6330 – 0.6198 range.
Short entries are favorable around resistance levels with confirmation.
Long opportunities may arise near or below 0.6189 if signs of exhaustion emerge.
Use your strict money management rules to manage risks effectively
Technical analysis
AUD/USD hovers around 0.6215, struggling to hold gains as renewed US tariff threats and weak Chinese economic data weigh on sentiment. Trump’s 10% tariff on China and soft PMI figures add to concerns over Australia’s export-driven economy.
Meanwhile, expectations of an RBA rate cut in February further pressure the Aussie, while iron ore prices hitting yearly highs offer limited support. With the Fed remaining cautious on rate cuts, the US Dollar retains an edge, keeping AUD/USD’s upside limited.
